In the midst of a slump

After last weekend’s loss to the San Diego Wave, the North Carolina Courage have lost four of five. They’ve slipped from the top half of the table to out of the playoffs.

A lot of discussion, even here, has focuses on the defense. They’ve given up two goals in all four losses, and eight goals allowed across five games is a pace that would be 14th in the league for a full season.

However, when asked in the post-game press conference, head coach Mak Lind looked in a different direction.

Today, I would say we need to create more goal scoring opportunities. And of course, we're going to look into that. How can we move the ball more under control when we break the first pressing line and and create more goal scoring opportunities.

And the numbers back him up. By using the American Soccer Analysis VizHub, we can see where they’ve lost offensive output.

A two-month slump on offense #

Looking at how the Courage have performed by expected goals and expected goals allowed, the past few months show some trends.

In mid-August, they hit an injury spell. Riley Jackson, Ally Schlegel, Lauryn Thompson, Natalie Jacobs, and Maycee Bell all picked up injuries in this timeframe, and both the offense and defense suffered.

The Courage were able to stablize the defense; over the past six games their defensive performances have been, by the metrics, the best stretch of the season. The problem is that the offense created has dropped as much, or more, than the defense has gotten better.

It’s good when your strikers get shots #

Nowhere does this show up more than in the numbers of striker Evelyn Ijeh.

Ijeh has been very good for the Courage this year. Among strikers who’ve played ⅔ of minutes, she ranks fourth in xG generated per game, behind only Barbra Banda, Sophia Smith, and Aissata Traore.

But recently she hasn’t been able to get many shots at all, much less good ones.

Her shot volume has been cut in half. Her shot value has been cut in four.

She hasn’t suddenly lost the ability to get off shots. Looking at her touch map shows the problem.

For the first ⅔ of the season, Ijeh popped up in the center circle in buildup, in the left and right half-spaces to combine, and right around the penalty area to finish high-value shots.

Recently, she still shows up in the same places to combine. She shows up even deeper to help with the press and the buildout. But the penalty area touches that then lead to good shots? They aren’t there.

Getting Ijeh the ball in the box #

Is this an Ijeh problem? Not really. There are strikers who live on the defense’s back shoulders, run into space, and create on their own. Ijeh is not one of those; she relies on her teammates to get her the ball. And recently, the Courage’s passing has not been progressing the ball the same way. You can see this by mapping the destination of their progressive passes.

For most of the season, North Carolina’s progressive passing has been focused on getting to the highest value parts of the pitch. Over one out of every five progressive passes led directly to a shot.

Now, a significant percentage of their progressive passes aren’t even into the box. There is value in these passes; setting up Ashley Sanchez to drive in from the wing is a good play. But they’re not as often getting directly to the high-value shot locations, and now only one out of every seven passes leads to a shot.

What to do with two games left? #

Mak Lind appears to see the problem a similar way; he notes them having issues turning the initial part of the buildup into threatening opportunities.

We could find three players facing forward and and try to break the next line. I would say today we failed in the execution from more a creating phase, or higher up on the pitch, making sure that we can hurt their backline and we didn't hurt the backline enough.

If you want to create more goal scoring opportunities you need to be skilled in the phase where you have just beat the opponent’s first pressing line, first forward or second forward. I would say the buildup where we find the free player happens often, then more the next pass, the quality pass of breaking the backline, needs to happen. If you don’t break the backline enough then you do not create goal scoring opportunities for your number nine or in this case for your right wing. So I would say we need to be more skilled to break the lines when we have the chance.

Of course, fixing that is easier said that done. If you look at when the Courage were at their offensive peak, it was during the time where Ally Schlegel got the most playing time. She remains out with a foot injury. However, that right side does show one potential way.

If you go back and look at the origin of the team’s progressive passes, you’ll see a shift in where they come from. Before, there was a number that started in and around the box, especially on the right hand side.

Now, those spaces around the edges of the area aren’t used as much.

It’s unlikely there is time for mass tactical or personnel shifts with two must-win games left. But if they can make a tiny tweak to get Ryan Williams back on the ball and making passes from higher up the field, and work to get Evelyn Ijeh back on the ball in the box, they stand a chance of getting out of their offensive slump.